Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Currency Doubleday. 1996.
Referenced in: Strategies for Church Renewal – Whole Systems, Large Group
LifeandLeadership.com Summary
This book discusses Scenario Planning, a Whole Systems approach to organizational renewal that has been useful in many churches. Consult the Resource Guide for additional works on AI and other Whole Systems approaches.
This is not a book of “strategic planning” in the ordinary sense, but of long-range positioning using “scenario planning.” Scenario planning equips participants to define a common question, which if answered will provide the key to effective engagement of the future. People reflect critically on individual biases and assumptions through broad and creative research into the most important driving forces that surround them. Then they craft future scenarios, not to predict the future, but to envision all plausible futures and then craft a plan of action that is suitable for any potential development. It is not the typical visioning process in which all participants gear toward one model of the future, usually the one that is articulated by the leader(s). Instead, it fosters a participatory environment where all those affected are brought into the discussion to lean into future through imagining the worlds that could be (scenarios) and then planning with these in mind.
From the Publisher
What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life – bottom-line numbers, for instance – but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories – scenarios – and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles.
In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all-new User’s Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the “scenario” approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business.
Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world’s leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.
About the Author
Peter Schwartz is a futurist, author, and cofounder of the Global Business Network (GBN), an elite corporate strategy firm, specializing in future-think and scenario planning.
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